|
Table of
Contents
Don’t Even Consider a Long Term Occupation of IRAQ
Federal Judge Edmund Sargus in Columbus, Ohio Needs our Prayers
Charles Murray has Inadvertently Pointed up a Global Trade Problem
Decentralization is an Important Means for Controlling the Center
Vote Fraud and Vote Suppression Must be Corrected
Great Essays by Drs. Freeman, Francis, and Baiman Deserve Recognition
The Next Page
..
The Prior Page
....The Home Page
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. |
Don’t Even Consider a Long Term Occupation of IRAQ! - Reports have been appearing in the newspapers about construction of several large permanent military bases for American soldiers in IRAQ. If these reports are true, it would indicate that the Bush administration is planning for US forces to stay for many years. The Sh’ite leadership, representing 60% of IRAQ’s population, has made it clear that they want American forces out as soon as possible. The current insurgency is recruiting terrorists from the Sunni population which represents about 20% of IRAQ. If the US tries to stay in the face of Sh’ite opposition, the insurgency will grow about three fold. The attendant destruction of American lives and loss of American limbs would be unacceptable.
The leaders in America’s unofficial fifty-first state (Israel) and their friends in the US would very much like to keep an American army close by in the Middle East to intimidate other countries in the neighborhood. America’s political leaders must resist the urge to curry favor with this powerful interest group. ... .. (Prepared by HVM on 3/19/2005)
Federal Judge Edmund Sargus in Columbus, Ohio Needs our Prayers - The 2004 election fraud case seems destined for the courtroom of Federal Judge Edmund Sargus. This truly sad situation has been dropped in Judge Sargus’ lap. In sum it appears some evil men were so intent on getting Bush re-elected that they tampered with vote counting devices in several states and moved approximately 5.5% of the popular vote from Kerry to Bush. Now lawyers in Judge Sargus’ court room are going to have to sort out “what happened”; first in Ohio and as the red flags pop up there the search is likely to extend nationwide.
What will happen in this courtroom initially will be the revelation that Kerry not Bush was entitled to Ohio’s electoral vote. This will leave Bush as the popular vote winner but the electoral college loser. The subsequent investigations in other battle ground states will reveal that Kerry won the popular vote as well. This process will probably take 18 months in Ohio and another 18 months nationwide. As the revelation come in, the politicians in the various states and in Washington DC will begin to squirm. They will respond by putting pressure on the Federal judiciary to shut the investigations down.
The pressure on Judge Sargus will be intense. He is going to need superhuman strength to do what has to be done to return honest elections to America. We should all pray that God blesses Judge Sargus with the grace and strength he will need to do this difficult job. (prepared by HVM on 3/5/2005)
Charles Murray has Inadvertently Pointed up a Global Trade Problem - In his famous book The Bell Curve the author Charles Murray has pointed out that American blacks have an average IQ of about 80, the average Caucasian has an IQ of 100, and the average oriental has an IQ of about 104. Taking just the two largest groups in America (blacks and Caucasians), America has an average IQ of about 98.
In discussing global free trade, proponents of free trade assert that American will get the good high paying jobs that require intelligence while foreigners (who are willing to work for peanuts) will get the less desirable jobs. But the IQ gap indicates that over time the reverse will be true. America is likely to end up with somewhat less intellectually demanding jobs and the orientals (eg. Chinese) are likely to end up with the intellectually more challenging jobs. Since 30 points of additional IQ, generally translates into 2 to 3 times more income. The average Chinese is likely to have average income 20 to 30 percent more than the average income in America. These are end state conditions not likely to be reached for many years.
In the interim, the peoples involved, Chinese and Americans, will be seeking education to be able to compete. Education is acquired in two ways - in classrooms and "on the job". Countries that have lots of factories will lead in “on the job” educations. Countries with trade schools and junior colleges will excel in formal training. China is adding places in their universities and trade schools; it is also adding manufacturing jobs. Both of these improve the skills of their work force.
America on the other hand prides itself on all the “low skill” manufacturing jobs that have been moved offshore. Additionally America pushes tax cuts and defense spending increases that have cut deeply into junior college and trade school tuition subsidiaries. It should be noted that low IQ people learn best in environments where repetition is used to teach, while brighter people can learn quickly from both repetition and classroom training. The “on the job” training found in manufacturing plants is particularly desirable for providing a way to train lower IQ people for jobs that offer the chance to progress into supervision and perhaps management without formal college degrees. America, with a large minority of people who would most benefit from "on the job" training, should retain as many manufacturing jobs as possible. (Prepared by HVM on 3/5/2004)
Decentralization is an Important Means for Controlling the Center - The Christian world is blessed by the major decentralizations that came in the eleventh and sixteenth centuries. These placed some control on the Vatican, which is at the center of Christianity.
The split off of the Orthodox Churches in the eleventh century gave the Vatican its first major break away group in this millenium. This alternate force provided competition as wider and wider areas were proselytized. This competition ebbed and flowed across eastern Europe. Open warfare did not break out, but the competition did trigger a process that refined theological thought. Islam eventually curtailed the influence of orthodox Christianity. When Constantinople fell in the fifteenth century to Islam, Orthodoxy was only saved because it was by then firmly established in Russia.
By the sixteenth century extensive corruption, with regard to both power and wealth, had again established itself at the center. This was challenged by the rebellion (also called the reformation) of both Luther and Calvin who sought a simplified “no strings attached” Christianity. The Rome responded by reforming itself. This has led to a interesting stasis in which the Vatican provides refined, purified theological thought to the entire Christian world. Some of these thoughts are rejected by certain Protestant or Orthodox congregations, but much is adopted and used mostly without attribution. The Protestants and Orthodox peoples provide Christianity with a check against the re-emergence of excess at the center.
At this point, Christianity is in very good shape. No one is being burned at the stake, people get to live their lives pretty much as they wish, but the Roman Church has a strong voice and regularly proclaims the truth about faith and moral for all Christian to hear.
The trick for twenty first century man is to find a way to emulate this same stasis with regard to political structures. In America, the founding fathers established a political system where the periphery (the states) had considerable power to control the center (Washington DC). The state governments had the power to elect US Senators and to succeed from the union, but most important was the state’s right to control all governmental functions not specifically assigned to the federal government by the Constitution. This structure, created 1787, had a wonderful balance about it. The bulk of the power rested with a level of government close to the people. However, foreign affairs and defense were housed at the center. Lincoln, of course, broke this finely crafted political machine and power flowed away from the states to Washington. Now essentially all power in all spheres resides at the center. Some way must be found to restore the founder's vision. (prepared by HVM on 3/5/2005)
Vote Fraud and Vote Suppression Must be Corrected - The election of 2004 is over and the experts are beginning to read the entrails. The last minute pre-election polls and summary exit poll numbers show that Kerry won. But the certified results show that Bush won. All in all, there was an average 4% swing from Kerry to Bush over all the battleground states, some more some less. The probability of this happening without some manipulation of both the process and results is about a million to one. The variations have to be explained, and in time they will be. The preliminary reports indicate that vote suppression in Democratic precincts in battleground states was compounded by vote tampering in those and other precincts. Kerry conceded quickly because the Bush lead was so big he could not imagine overcoming it with recounts. Now it looks like Kerry’s judgement was incorrect.
There is some indication that the networks that conducted the exit polls are covering up. They are refusing to release the detail exit poll data for outside experts to analyze. This refusal needs investigation.
However, the main process is unfolding in Ohio where the list of irregularities is huge and lawyers are already discussing criminal indictments of the state’s chief election official. Once they sort out how the “vote suppression/vote tampering” was pulled off in Ohio, the other battleground states will get their share of attention. The election process has to be cleaned up and the only institution that can do it seems to be the Federal courts. These courts (after Missouri v. Jenkins) have the power to order the expenditure of public money to do such things as: (1) assure there are enough voting stations within polling places so people can start to vote in a reasonable length of time (perhaps 30 minutes after arrival), (2) that there are easily re-countable paper trials for every vote cast (this will probably require a paper ballot that can be optically scanned and/or manually recounted, if needed), (3) that polling places be located in facilities that can hold up to one fourth (1/4) of the registered voters assigned to that polling place (such facilities as gyms, movie theaters, auditoriums, etc.), (4) that the pool of election judges include non-partisan trained workers with no ties to either the Democrats or Republicans, and (5) that there should be mandatory re-votes in precincts where impossible (or highly improbable) events occur like more votes cast than registered voters, or a 99% turnout, or unbelievable result for a third party candidate. If such anomalies occur in more than 2% of the precincts in a state the entire state should re-vote.
In Colorado a very interesting exit poll was conducted by the National Election Poll (NEP), the consortium of several news organizations (CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, AP, etc.) A random set of 2500 persons in Colorado agreed to be interviewed with regard to their votes in the Salazar/Coors Senate race as well as the Bush/Kerry Presidential race. The results were exactly predictive of the results in the Salazar/Coors race 52.2% for Salazar and 47.8% for Coors. However, the exit polls were off by 1.7% with regard to the Bush/Kerry race with Bush's actual result running 1.7% ahead of his exit poll result. This result is instructive because the Salazar/Coors exit poll acted as a perfect calibrator (or bench test) to verify the accuracy of the exit poll's design. The good group of precincts were selected, the random set of voters were interviewed, the good group of people were hired and trained to conduct the exit poll, etc. The Bush/Kerry results diverging by 1.7% indicates that (1) about 45 people (out of the 2500) interviewed by the exit pollsters lied about how they voted for president while telling the truth about their Salazar/Coors vote, or (2) some bad people were tampering with the Presidential vote results inside the polling places. The NEP has been saying that their exit poll design was flawed and that that is the reason the actual results for president were about four percentage points different than their exit polls predicted nationwide. The Colorado results show that that explanation is wrong and that tampering inside the polling places in the battleground states is the most likely explaination for the Bush victory.
The nation, after Florida/2000, wants discussions of election fraud to go away. That is understandable. However, the combination of high tech "paperless" voting with the willingness of "win at any cost" pols to steal votes by the thousands requires immediate action. Americans must begin writing letters ... letters to the courts, letters to newspapers, letters to television station news departments, letters to friends, etc.
P.S. To recommend that the Federal Courts do to the electoral process what they did to public education over integration is hard for any thoughtful person. In addition, this author sincerely wants power to flow away from the Federal Courts and back to the states and, to a lesser degree, to the other branches of the Federal government. However, it is obvious that some sharp political operators have figured out how to massively rig elections and their tricks have got to be exposed and corrected before our form of government disappears. ... prepared by Hugh Murray (1/15/05)... updated (2/5/2005)
Great Essays by Drs. Freeman, Francis, and Baiman Deserve Recognition - Exceptional, eye-opening essays come along once or twice every calendar quarter.
In the Nov ‘04 to Jan ‘05 period the work of the columnist, Samuel Francis, in his column on the degree of governmental restraint needed to maintain order in multi-cultural societies, was noteworthy . In this column Dr. Francis points out that such desperate personalities as Helmut Schmidt, former Chancellor of West Germany, and Edmund Burke, former member of the English Parliament, have added to the discussion. Schmidt has commented that the huge influx of Turkish guest workers into Germany has created the need for an increase in the state’s control over people’s lives. The former cohesion that Germany enjoyed where behavior was controlled by the culture without formal state intervention is disappearing because of the massive presence of people who do not share this German culture. Edmund Burke had earlier made a more general but related point. He said that people must be controlled by either interior or exterior power. Interior restraint comes from the heart of a people that shares values and morals. Exterior constraints will be needed when shared values and morals are no longer present. Francis went on to point out that multi-culturalism is being foisted on Western Europe and America by certain elites that will not enforce immigration laws or let political groups spring up that will oppose these “open door” policies. The people sense they are losing both their culture and their freedom, but are unable to fight back.
The other essays that deserve special mention for this 90 day period are Dr. Steven F, Freeman’s essay Who Really Won the 2004 Presidential Election An Examination of Uncorrected Exit Poll Data and the essay by Dr Ron P. Baiman and Jonathan Simon. The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won the Popular Vote? An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data. These two essays are particularly good because they combine an clear explanation of both exit poll methodology and statistical probability to show that the difference between the exit poll numbers and actual vote counts in the battle ground states are so wide that the probability of the two sets of numbers coming from the same election are either 250,000:1 or 950,000:1 depending on how many battleground states are included in the study. (As more battleground states are included, the sample size of the exit poll increases and the accuracy of the overall exit poll results increases as well, thus the higher probability that the exit poll was right.) Their work was done with summary numbers of exit poll interviews; they await the release the detail “interview by interview” data to refine their conclusions. The people who did the exit polls (Edison/Mitofsky) have as of Jan. 20, 2005 refused to release their raw data, saying they prefer to adjust their summary exit poll numbers to comport with the reported vote counts. They have arbitrarily blamed the discrepancy on an unwillingness of Republican voters to answer exit pollsters' questions, but even their summary numbers seem to belie this explaination. It turns out voters at Republican leaning polls were 2 to 4 percent more likely to answer exit pollsters' questions than voters in Democrat leaning precincts. In other words, it seems Democrats not Republicans were the ones who were slightly more likely to refuse the exit pollsters. There is one heartening finding. Those polls that voted with plain old paper ballots were getting actual vote tallies within the usual margin of error of the exit polls. The polls that used electronic devices to either count ballots (or record votes where no ballots were created) got results six times to eleven times more skewed than the paper ballot polls. The results by type of voting process are: hand counted paper ballots 0.9, Optical scanned paper ballots 5.5, Punch card 7.3, Touch screens 7.0, and Mechanical voting machines 10.3. All these variations were in Bush's favor. Nixon was told to “burn the tapes”, he refused to for the sake of history. America should pray that these exit pollsters resist the current pressure to destroy their raw data and instead make it available to experts who wish to (1) find out how the election was tampered with and (2) propose fixes to the voting system so this does not happen again in 2006 or 2008. ... prepared by HVM (1/21/2005)
. hr>
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. This page hopes to bring a common
sense, old fashioned view to today's news. The comments displayed
on this page were prepared by
Hugh V. Murray, who can be reached at hvm@aol.com
|
.......